Nijmegen vs Levski Sofia

Prediction and result

Before kickoff, the model made Levski Sofia favourites at 65% (Nijmegen 17%, draw 18%). That rests on expected goals of 2.10 to 0.95 and 5 wins in Levski Sofia's last 10 matches to 2 for Nijmegen. It put over 2.5 goals at 61% and both teams scoring at 51%. It ended 1-1, a draw the model had put at 18%.

Key facts before the match

• Nijmegen have gone 6 matches without a win.