SMO◦ANCE

Match Intelligence

Live API

Football · Efbet League · Bulgaria

Lok. Sofia vs Botev Plovdiv

Friday, 30 October 2026

Match preview

The model makes Botev Plovdiv favourites at 58% (Lok. Sofia 22%, draw 20%). That rests on expected goals of 1.87 to 1.04, Botev Plovdiv sitting 5th in the table to Lok. Sofia's 12th, 6 wins in Botev Plovdiv's last 10 matches to 3 for Lok. Sofia and 6 wins from the last 10 meetings to 2. Bookmakers give Botev Plovdiv about 40% once their margin is removed, so the model is more confident than the market. It puts over 2.5 goals at 54% and both teams scoring at 56%.

Key facts

Lok. Sofia are unbeaten in 5 matches.
Botev Plovdiv failed to score in 3 of their last 6 away games.
Botev Plovdiv kept 5 clean sheets in their last 10 matches.
They last met on 21 Jul 2026, when it finished 1-1.

Bulgaria•Efbet League

Lok. Sofia(2)

Rank 12 · 8 pts

D0d

W7d

D14d

W21d

W34d

L38d

D43d

L48d

D54d

L68d

3W · 4D · 3L

Botev Plovdiv(6)

Rank 5 · 19 pts

L1d

W6d

W10d

W14d

W35d

W41d

W50d

L55d

L61d

L70d

6W · 0D · 4L

Friday, 30 October 2026 at 20:30

H2H: 2-2-6

Last 10 matches

1010

15/1516/12

1.501.60

1.501.20

9/107/10

4/105/10

9/105/10

5/104/10

1/105/10

1/103/10

9/108/10

6/105/10

8/102/10

Home & away form · from last 10 matches

Lok. Sofia at homeBotev Plovdiv away

1/53/6

2/50/6

2/53/6

1.401.67

1.401.50

4/53/6

1/53/6

5/54/6

2/53/6

0/52/6

1/53/6

2/54/6

4/51/6

Model Prediction

Expected Goals

Lok. Sofia: 1.04

Expected Goals

Botev Plovdiv: 1.87

Lok. Sofia

22%

Draw

20%

Botev Plovdiv

58%

Over 2.5: 54%

BTTS: 56%

Quality: high

Market Odds (1X2)

Vig 8.6%

1 — Lok. Sofia

2.80▼

Implied 33%

Edge -10.9%

3.40

Implied 27%

Edge -7.1%

2 — Botev Plovdiv

2.30▲

Implied 40%

Edge +18.0%

Edge = model probability − market implied probability. Positive edge means the model rates that outcome higher than the bookmaker.

Team 1 Form

Lok. Sofia · # = league position now

24 Oct2026

Lok. Sofia#12 vs Botev Vratsa#10

1-1D

17 Oct2026

Vihren vs Lok. Sofia#12

1-2W

10 Oct2026

Lok. Sofia#12 vs Lok. Plovdiv#11

1-1D

03 Oct2026

Lok. Sofia#12 vs Radnicki Nis

4-1W

20 Sept2026

Spartak Varna#7 vs Lok. Sofia#12

0-1W

16 Sept2026

Lok. Sofia#12 vs Cska Sofia#2

0-2L

11 Sept2026

Cherno More#14 vs Lok. Sofia#12

2-2D

06 Sept2026

Lok. Sofia#12 vs Ludogorets#3

1-2L

31 Aug2026

Dunav Ruse#9 vs Lok. Sofia#12

2-2D

17 Aug2026

Arda#6 vs Lok. Sofia#12

3-1L

Team 2 Form

Botev Plovdiv · # = league position now

23 Oct2026

Cska 1948 Sofia#4 vs Botev Plovdiv#5

4-0L

18 Oct2026

Chernomorets 1919 vs Botev Plovdiv#5

0-4W

14 Oct2026

Botev Plovdiv#5 vs Botev Vratsa#10

2-0W

10 Oct2026

Botev Plovdiv#5 vs Slavia Sofia#8

1-0W

19 Sept2026

Septemvri Sofia#13 vs Botev Plovdiv#5

0-3W

13 Sept2026

Botev Plovdiv#5 vs Lok. Plovdiv#11

2-0W

04 Sept2026

Arda#6 vs Botev Plovdiv#5

2-3W

30 Aug2026

Botev Plovdiv#5 vs Levski Sofia#1

1-3L

24 Aug2026

Botev Vratsa#10 vs Botev Plovdiv#5

1-0L

15 Aug2026

Ludogorets#3 vs Botev Plovdiv#5

2-0L

Head-to-Head

Last 10 · # = league position now

21 Jul2026

Botev Plovdiv#5 vs Lok. Sofia#12

1-1•

27 Mar2026

Botev Plovdiv#5 vs Lok. Sofia#12

3-1•

06 Dec2025