Latvia vs Montenegro

Prediction and result

Before kickoff, the model made Montenegro favourites at 51% (Latvia 27%, draw 22%). That rests on expected goals of 1.61 to 1.09, 6 wins in Montenegro's last 10 matches to 2 for Latvia and 2 wins from the last 4 meetings to 0. It put over 2.5 goals at 47% and both teams scoring at 50%. Montenegro won 2-1, as the model expected.

Key facts before the match

• They last met on 7 Sept 2021, when it finished 0-0.