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Match Intelligence

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Football · Championship · Scotland

Stenhousemuir vs Livingston

Friday, 30 October 2026

Match preview

The model makes Livingston favourites at 40% (Stenhousemuir 32%, draw 28%). That rests on 8 wins from the last 10 meetings to 1. Bookmakers give Livingston about 52% once their margin is removed, so the model is less confident than the market. It puts over 2.5 goals at 33% and both teams scoring at 32%.

Key facts

Stenhousemuir are 2nd in Championship on 23 points from 12 games; Livingston are 6th on 17.
Livingston failed to score in 2 of their last 4 away games.
They last met on 4 Sept 2026, when Stenhousemuir won 1-0.

Scotland•Championship

Stenhousemuir(1)

Rank 2 · 23 pts

L3d

L6d

D13d

L20d

W35d

W41d

W45d

L49d

W56d

W62d

5W · 1D · 4L

Livingston(8)

Rank 6 · 17 pts

W6d

D13d

L20d

L27d

W35d

D41d

W49d

L56d

L62d

W69d

4W · 2D · 4L

Friday, 30 October 2026 at 22:30

H2H: 1-1-8

Last 10 matches

1010

8/1113/9

0.801.30

1.100.90

6/107/10

1/104/10

6/106/10

3/103/10

4/104/10

4/103/10

5/106/10

3/104/10

2/104/10

Home & away form · from last 10 matches

Stenhousemuir at homeLivingston away

3/62/4

1/61/4

2/61/4

1.001.50

1.000.50

4/62/4

1/62/4

1/61/4

4/62/4

1/60/4

2/62/4

2/61/4

Model Prediction

Expected Goals

Stenhousemuir: 0.92

Expected Goals

Livingston: 1.08

Stenhousemuir

32%

Draw

28%

Livingston

40%

Over 2.5: 33%

BTTS: 32%

Quality: high

Market Odds (1X2)

Vig 9.3%

1 — Stenhousemuir

4.00▲

Implied 23%

Edge +9.1%

3.60▲

Implied 25%

Edge +2.6%

2 — Livingston

1.77▼

Implied 52%

Edge -11.7%

Edge = model probability − market implied probability. Positive edge means the model rates that outcome higher than the bookmaker.

Team 1 Form

Stenhousemuir · # = league position now

27 Oct2026

Stenhousemuir#2 vs Dunfermline#4

0-1L

24 Oct2026

Partick Thistle#1 vs Stenhousemuir#2

3-0L

17 Oct2026

Stenhousemuir#2 vs Raith#3

1-1D

10 Oct2026

Inverness#5 vs Stenhousemuir#2

2-0L

25 Sept2026

Ayr#7 vs Stenhousemuir#2

0-1W

19 Sept2026

Stenhousemuir#2 vs Arbroath#8

1-0W

15 Sept2026

Stenhousemuir#2 vs Partick Thistle#1

1-0W

11 Sept2026

Stenhousemuir#2 vs Hearts#3

0-3L

04 Sept2026

Livingston#6 vs Stenhousemuir#2

0-1W

29 Aug2026

Stenhousemuir#2 vs Inverness#5

3-1W

Team 2 Form

Livingston · # = league position now

24 Oct2026

Livingston#6 vs Arbroath#8

1-0W

17 Oct2026

Dunfermline#4 vs Livingston#6

0-0D

10 Oct2026

Livingston#6 vs Partick Thistle#1

1-2L

03 Oct2026

Livingston#6 vs Ayr#7

1-2L

25 Sept2026

Raith#3 vs Livingston#6

0-2W

19 Sept2026

Livingston#6 vs Inverness#5

2-2D

11 Sept2026

Morton#9 vs Livingston#6

1-4W

04 Sept2026

Livingston#6 vs Stenhousemuir#2

0-1L

29 Aug2026

Arbroath#8 vs Livingston#6

1-0L

22 Aug2026

Livingston#6 vs Dunfermline#4

2-0W

Head-to-Head

Last 10 · # = league position now

04 Sept2026

Livingston#6 vs Stenhousemuir#2

0-1•

25 Jul2026