Hamburger SV (GER) vs Lille (FRA)

Prediction and result

Before kickoff, the model made Lille (FRA) favourites at 57% (Hamburger SV (GER) 24%, draw 19%). That rests on expected goals of 2.07 to 1.25 and 6 wins in Lille (FRA)'s last 10 matches to 3 for Hamburger SV (GER). It put over 2.5 goals at 64% and both teams scoring at 58%. It ended 2-2, a draw the model had put at 19%.