Grimsby vs Exeter

Prediction and result

Before kickoff, the model made Grimsby favourites at 53% (Exeter 26%, draw 21%). That rests on expected goals of 1.80 to 1.16 and 4 wins in Grimsby's last 10 matches to 2 for Exeter. Exeter lead the head-to-head 6-2, which keeps it from being more one-sided. It put over 2.5 goals at 58% and both teams scoring at 60%. Grimsby won 1-0, as the model expected.

Key facts before the match

• They last met on 27 Apr 2021, when Exeter won 3-2.