Genoa vs Ascoli

Prediction and result

Before kickoff, the model made Ascoli favourites at 48% (Genoa 27%, draw 25%). That rests on expected goals of 1.39 to 0.95 and 4 wins in Ascoli's last 10 matches to 2 for Genoa. Genoa lead the head-to-head 5-2, which keeps it from being more one-sided. It put over 2.5 goals at 51% and both teams scoring at 45%. Genoa won 4-1, against the model's 48% for Ascoli.

Key facts before the match

• They last met on 6 May 2023, when Genoa won 2-1.