England vs Argentina

Prediction and result

Before kickoff, the model made Argentina favourites at 50% (England 29%, draw 21%). That rests on expected goals of 1.82 to 1.32 and 10 wins in Argentina's last 10 matches to 7 for England. England lead the head-to-head 2-0, which keeps it from being more one-sided. It put over 2.5 goals at 63% and both teams scoring at 59%. Argentina won 2-1, as the model expected.

Key facts before the match

• Argentina have won 10 matches in a row.
• England have won 4 matches in a row.
• They last met on 12 Nov 2005, when England won 3-2.