Bury vs Bromsgrove

Prediction and result

Before kickoff, the model made Bury favourites at 58% (Bromsgrove 23%, draw 19%). That rests on expected goals of 2.18 to 1.31. Bromsgrove come in with the better recent form (8 wins from 10 to 6), which keeps it from being more one-sided. It put over 2.5 goals at 65% and both teams scoring at 57%. Bury won 2-1, as the model expected.

Key facts before the match

• Bromsgrove are unbeaten in 9 matches.