Burnley vs Middlesbrough

Prediction and result

Before kickoff, the model made Middlesbrough favourites at 64% (Burnley 17%, draw 19%). That rests on expected goals of 2.01 to 0.89 and 4 wins in Middlesbrough's last 10 matches to 0 for Burnley. Burnley lead the head-to-head 4-2, which keeps it from being more one-sided. It put over 2.5 goals at 54% and both teams scoring at 60%. It ended 1-1, a draw the model had put at 19%.

Key facts before the match

• Burnley have gone 10 matches without a win.
• They last met on 29 Dec 2024, when it finished 0-0.