Bosnia & Herzegovina vs Sweden

Prediction and result

Before kickoff, the model made Bosnia & Herzegovina favourites at 48% (Sweden 31%, draw 21%). That rests on expected goals of 1.78 to 1.38. Sweden come in with the better recent form (5 wins from 10 to 2), which keeps it from being more one-sided. It put over 2.5 goals at 61% and both teams scoring at 69%. It ended 1-1, a draw the model had put at 21%.

Key facts before the match

• They last met on 29 May 2010, when Sweden won 4-2.