Belgium vs Turkey

Prediction and result

Before kickoff, the model made Belgium favourites at 56% (Turkey 23%, draw 21%). That rests on expected goals of 1.74 to 1.03. Turkey lead the head-to-head 3-1, which keeps it from being more one-sided. It put over 2.5 goals at 51% and both teams scoring at 57%. Belgium won 3-0, as the model expected.

Key facts before the match

• They last met on 3 Jun 2011, when it finished 1-1.