Basel vs Lugano

Prediction and result

Before kickoff, the model made Lugano favourites at 83% (Basel 7%, draw 10%). That rests on expected goals of 3.31 to 0.89, 8 wins in Lugano's last 10 matches to 4 for Basel and 5 wins from the last 10 meetings to 2. It put over 2.5 goals at 70% and both teams scoring at 60%. Lugano won 3-1, as the model expected.

Key facts before the match

• Lugano are unbeaten in 10 matches.
• They last met on 17 May 2026, when Lugano won 4-0.