Aubagne vs Thionville

Prediction and result

Before kickoff, the model made Thionville favourites at 50% (Aubagne 29%, draw 21%). That rests on expected goals of 1.75 to 1.28 and 4 wins in Thionville's last 10 matches to 2 for Aubagne. It put over 2.5 goals at 61% and both teams scoring at 60%. Thionville won 3-0, as the model expected.