Football · Saudi Professional League · Saudi Arabia
Al Shabab vs Al Ahli SC
Friday, 30 October 2026
Upcoming. The scheduled start is still ahead. Match status has not been confirmed live.Match preview
The model makes Al Ahli SC favourites at 71% (Al Shabab 14%, draw 15%). That rests on expected goals of 2.50 to 1.02, Al Ahli SC sitting 5th in the table to Al Shabab's 12th and 7 wins in Al Ahli SC's last 10 matches to 2 for Al Shabab. Bookmakers give Al Ahli SC about 47% once their margin is removed, so the model is more confident than the market. It puts over 2.5 goals at 70% and both teams scoring at 67%.
Key facts
- Al Ahli SC have won 5 matches in a row.
- Al Ahli SC scored in every one of their last 10 matches.
- They last met on 13 Feb 2026, when Al Ahli SC won 5-2.
- Al Ahli SC have scored in all of their last 5 away games.
Saudi Arabia•Saudi Professional League
vs
Friday, 30 October 2026 at 21:00
Upcoming. The scheduled start is still ahead. Match status has not been confirmed live.H2H: 4-3-3
Last 10 matches
1010
15/1428/12
1.502.80
1.401.20
7/1010/10
5/108/10
7/108/10
5/103/10
3/102/10
3/100/10
8/1010/10
6/109/10
6/108/10
Home & away form · from last 10 matches
al Shabab at homeal Ahli sc away
55
1/53/5
3/50/5
1/52/5
1.602.60
1.401.60
3/55/5
3/54/5
2/53/5
3/54/5
3/53/5
2/51/5
2/50/5
3/55/5
2/54/5
Model Prediction
Expected Goals
al Shabab: 1.02
Expected Goals
al Ahli sc: 2.5
al Shabab
14%
Draw
15%
al Ahli sc
71%
Over 2.5: 70%
BTTS: 67%
Quality: high
Market Odds (1X2)
Vig 9.0%
1 — Al Shabab
3.20▼
Implied 29%
Edge -14.7%
X
3.70
Implied 25%
Edge -9.8%
2 — Al Ahli SC
1.97▲
Implied 47%
Edge +24.4%
Edge = model probability − market implied probability. Positive edge means the model rates that outcome higher than the bookmaker.
Team 1 Form
al Shabab · # = league position now
22 Oct2026
al Fateh#16 vs al Shabab#12
1-3W
19 Oct2026
al Shabab#12 vs al Faisaly#14
2-2D
11 Oct2026
al Shabab#12 vs al Taawon#17
3-0W
12 Sept2026
al Shabab#12 vs al Fayha#15
0-0D
09 Sept2026
al Kholood#9 vs al Shabab#12
2-1L
04 Sept2026
al Shabab#12 vs al Hilal#1
0-2L
30 Aug2026
al Hazem#13 vs al Shabab#12
1-1D
25 Aug2026
al Shabab#12 vs al Riyadh#11
3-3D
22 Aug2026
al Khaleej#10 vs al Shabab#12
0-0D
16 Aug2026
al Wehda vs al Shabab#12
3-2L
Team 2 Form
al Ahli sc · # = league position now
26 Oct2026
al Ahli sc#5 vs al Gharafa
2-1W
23 Oct2026
al Ahli sc#5 vs al Khaleej#10
4-1W
19 Oct2026
al Fayha#15 vs al Ahli sc#5
2-3W
12 Oct2026
al Wasl vs al Ahli sc#5
1-3W
09 Oct2026
al Fateh#16 vs al Ahli sc#5
0-4W
19 Sept2026
Mamelodi Sundowns#1 vs al Ahli sc#5
2-1L
14 Sept2026
al Ahli sc#5 vs Pakhtakor#2
1-1D
11 Sept2026
al Ahli sc#5 vs al Hazem#13
3-1W
08 Sept2026
al Qadsiah#3 vs al Ahli sc#5
3-2L
04 Sept2026
al Ahli sc#5 vs al Riyadh#11
5-0W
Head-to-Head
Last 10 · # = league position now
13 Feb2026
al Shabab#12 vs al Ahli sc#5
2-5•
17 Oct2025
al Ahli sc#5 vs al Shabab#12
1-1•
11 May2025
al Shabab#12 vs al Ahli sc#5
3-1•
10 Jan2025
al Ahli sc#5 vs al Shabab#12
3-2•
11 May2024
al Shabab#12 vs al Ahli sc#5
1-2•
25 Nov2023
al Ahli sc#5 vs al Shabab#12
0-0•
27 Jun2022
al Shabab#12 vs al Ahli sc#5
0-0•
21 Feb2022
al Shabab#12 vs al Ahli sc#5
2-1•
01 Jan2022
al Ahli sc#5 vs al Shabab#12
3-4•
22 Feb2021
al Shabab#12 vs al Ahli sc#5
3-0•
Upcoming matches
# = league position now
al Shabab
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