Middlesbrough vs Charlton

Match preview

The model makes Middlesbrough favourites at 75% (Charlton 11%, draw 14%). That rests on expected goals of 2.51 to 0.80, Middlesbrough sitting 1st in the table to Charlton's 19th, 5 wins in Middlesbrough's last 10 matches to 1 for Charlton and 7 wins from the last 10 meetings to 2. Bookmakers give Middlesbrough about 75% once their margin is removed, close to the model's view. It puts over 2.5 goals at 55% and both teams scoring at 47%.

Key facts

• Charlton have gone 9 matches without a win.
• Middlesbrough are unbeaten in 7 matches.
• They last met on 11 Mar 2026, when Charlton won 1-0.
• Charlton concede 2.4 goals a game away from home.