Lincoln vs Birmingham

Match preview

The model makes Birmingham favourites at 70% (Lincoln 13%, draw 17%). That rests on expected goals of 2.10 to 0.75, Birmingham sitting 7th in the table to Lincoln's 15th, 5 wins in Birmingham's last 10 matches to 3 for Lincoln and 4 wins from the last 4 meetings to 0. Bookmakers give Birmingham about 46% once their margin is removed, so the model is more confident than the market. It puts over 2.5 goals at 62% and both teams scoring at 53%.

Key facts

• They last met on 8 Mar 2025, when Birmingham won 1-0.
• 3 of the last 4 meetings had three or more goals.