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Basketball · Olympic Games Women - Qualification - Preliminary · World

Canada W vs Mexico W

Friday, 21 August 2026

Played. Source reports: FINISHED.
Final score
Canada W70-64Mexico W

Prediction and result

Before tip-off, the model made Canada W favourites at 68%, projecting 67-62 (about 129 points in total). That rests on 4 wins from the last 4 meetings to 0. Mexico W have the better recent record (8-2 against 5-5), so form alone would point the other way. Canada W won 70-64, as the model expected.

World • Olympic Games Women - Qualification - Preliminary
Canada W vs Mexico W
21 Aug • 05:30
Played. Source reports: FINISHED.
Final score
Canada W70-64Mexico W
Predicted Winner
Canada W
68%to win
by ~5.3 pts vs Mexico W
Projected Total
128.7pts
67 – 61.7
no market line
Halftime Proj
67.3pts
37.5 – 29.8
model projection
Quarter Scores
projected
Q1Q2Q3Q4
Canad…20.816.715.913.7
Mexic…17.712.115.516.4
Total38.528.831.430.1
from last 5+5 games
Canada W
Last 10: 5–5 (50%)
PPG: 69.6 — Allowed: 60.5 — Pace: 130.1
Mexico W
Last 10: 8–2 (80%)
PPG: 67.3 — Allowed: 56.3 — Pace: 123.6
Canada W Form
Canada W
W
L
L
W
W
L
L
L
W
W
5W · 5L
—
Canada W vs Senegal W
72-57W↗
Q:22-1419-1917-1514-9
—
Australia W vs Canada W
82-76L↗
Q:20-1520-2426-2016-17
—
Canada W vs Japan W
62-66L↗
Q:21-1818-2111-1512-12
—
Argentina W vs Canada W
41-75W↗
Q:8-2914-167-1612-14
—
Hungary W vs Canada W
53-75W↗
Q:18-2412-1210-2213-17
—
Canada W vs Turkey W
69-71L↗
—
Argentina W vs Canada W
75-59L↗
—
USA W vs Canada W
65-53L↗
—
Canada W vs Colombia W
73-49W↗
—
Canada W vs Dominican Rep…
82-46W↗
Mexico W Form
Mexico W
W
L
W
W
W
W
L
W
W
W
8W · 2L
—
Mexico W vs Philippines W
61-58W↗
Q:16-229-1515-1021-11
—
Mexico W vs Puerto Rico W
44-57L↗
Q:16-224-148-816-13
—
Mexico W vs Panama W
59-56W↗
Q:15-1413-1121-1710-14
—
Mexico W vs Trinidad & To…
85-25W↗
Q:26-722-416-221-12
—
Mexico W vs Dominican Rep…
73-46W↗
Q:18-1119-1621-715-12
—
El Salvador W vs Mexico W
46-62W↗
—
Mexico W vs Puerto Rico W
68-82L↗
—
Mexico W vs United States…
65-62W↗
—
Mexico W vs Bahamas W
81-67W↗
—
Mexico W vs Dominican Rep…
75-64W↗
Head-to-Head
Last 10
—
Canada W vs Mexico W
83-57↗
Q:23-711-1427-1422-22
—
Mexico W vs Canada W
53-109↗
Q:13-317-2021-2712-31
—
Mexico W vs Canada W
39-65↗
Q:8-1512-138-2111-16
—
Mexico W vs Canada W
45-72↗
Q:4-195-1616-1220-25
Head-to-head summary
4 meetings — Canada W 4 / Mexico W 0. Average total: 130.8.

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