Basketball · NBL · Australia
Melbourne United vs Adelaide
Saturday, 19 September 2026
Upcoming. The scheduled start is still ahead. Match status has not been confirmed live.Melbourne United vs Adelaide in NBL (Basketball) on Saturday, 19 September 2026. See the head-to-head record, recent form and odds. Predictions and stats update daily.
Australia • NBL
Melbourne United vs Adelaide
19 Sept • 12:30
Upcoming. The scheduled start is still ahead. Match status has not been confirmed live.
Predicted Winner
Melbourne United
68%to win
by ~5.4 pts vs Adelaide
Projected Total
188.4pts
96.9 – 91.5
no market line
Halftime Proj
103.7pts
52.6 – 51.1
model projection
Quarter Scores
projected| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Melbo… | 24.1 | 28.5 | 18.1 | 26.2 |
| Adela… | 26.5 | 24.6 | 19.9 | 20.4 |
| Total | 50.6 | 53.1 | 38 | 46.6 |
from last 5+5 games
Melbourne United
Last 10: 6–4 (60%)
PPG: 88 — Allowed: 86 — Pace: 174
Adelaide
Last 10: 5–5 (50%)
PPG: 96.8 — Allowed: 100.2 — Pace: 197
Melbourne United Form
Melbourne United
W12d
L195d
W197d
W211d
L215d
W218d
L223d
L231d
W236d
W240d
Q:21-1930-2525-3427-20
Q:22-1922-3423-1028-14
Q:15-1725-1416-2426-13
Q:33-2319-1916-3027-19
Q:24-2921-2518-2328-23
Adelaide Form
Adelaide
W13d
L166d
W170d
L173d
W175d
L181d
W185d
L188d
W192d
L208d
Q:31-2332-2627-1222-25
Q:29-3127-2413-2126-19OT 18-6
Q:22-2424-2926-2120-17
Q:24-3128-2221-1733-23
Q:25-3028-2215-2523-12
Head-to-Head
Last 10
Q:23-2916-1214-2623-20
Q:27-2232-2622-1914-28OT 19-10
Q:14-1726-2019-1822-25
Q:27-1728-2522-2023-19
Q:29-2230-2426-2728-20
Head-to-head summary
10 meetings — Melbourne United 6 / Adelaide 4. Average total: 189.3.
Melbourne United
1.54
Implied 60.9%
Edge +7.1%
Adelaide
2.4
Implied 39.1%
Edge -7.1%
Bookmaker vig: 6.6%
Model output
{
"expected_points": {
"team_1": 96.9,
"team_2": 91.5,
"total": 188.4
},
"win_probability": {
"team_1": 68,
"team_2": 32
},
"form": {
"team_1": {
"played": 10,
"wins": 6,
"losses": 4,
"win_rate": 0.6,
"avg_pf": 88,
"avg_pa": 86,
"w_avg_pf": 88.2,
"w_avg_pa": 87,
"pace": 174,
"blowout_rate": 0.2
},
"team_2": {
"played": 10,
"wins": 5,
"losses": 5,
"win_rate": 0.5,
"avg_pf": 96.8,
"avg_pa": 100.2,
"w_avg_pf": 96.8,
"w_avg_pa": 99.7,
"pace": 197,
"blowout_rate": 0.2
}
},
"h2h_summary": {
"considered": 10,
"t1_wins": 6,
"t2_wins": 4,
"t1_win_rate": 0.6,
"avg_total": 189.3
},
"confidence": 89,
"winner": {
"team": "Melbourne United",
"probability": 68,
"margin_pts": 5.4,
"opponent": "Adelaide",
"opponent_probability": 32
},
"total_points": {
"projected_total": 188.4,
"team_1_proj": 96.9,
"team_2_proj": 91.5,
"market": null
},
"halftime": {
"team_1": 52.6,
"team_2": 51.1,
"total": 103.7,
"source": "projected_from_form"
},
"quarter_scores": null,
"quarter_prediction": {
"home": [
24.1,
28.5,
18.1,
26.2
],
"away": [
26.5,
24.6,
19.9,
20.4
],
"per_quarter_total": [
50.6,
53.1,
38,
46.6
],
"halftime": {
"home": 52.6,
"away": 51.1,
"total": 103.7
},
"source": "form",
"t1_samples": 5,
"t2_samples": 5,
"t1_fractions": {
"q1": 0.249,
"q2": 0.294,
"q3": 0.187,
"q4": 0.271,
"samples": 5
},
"t2_fractions": {
"q1": 0.29,
"q2": 0.269,
"q3": 0.218,
"q4": 0.223,
"samples": 5
}
},
"predictions": {
"safe": {
"market": "moneyline",
"pick": "Melbourne United to win",
"team": "Melbourne United",
"win_prob": 68,
"confidence": 89,
"reason": "Projected margin ~5 pts; form 60% vs 50% (last 10/10); H2H 60% over last 10"
},
"high_risk": {
"market": "total points (Over)",
"pick": "Over (projected 188)",
"projected": 188.4,
"confidence": 89,
"reason": "Combined pace 185.5 > league baseline."
}
},
"model_version": "v2-2026-05-basketball"
}Full match data
{
"sport": "basketball",
"league": "NBL",
"country": "Australia",
"match": "Melbourne United vs Adelaide",
"date": "2026-09-19",
"time": "12:30",
"status": "",
"score": null,
"quarters": null,
"match_stats": null,
"team_1": {
"name": "Melbourne United",
"last_10_matches": [
{
"date": "06.09.26",
"home": "Melbourne United",
"away": "Illawarra Hawks",
"score": "103-98",
"home_points": 103,
"away_points": 98,
"total_points": 201,
"home_won": true,
"quarters": {
"home": [
21,
30,
25,
27
],
"away": [
19,
25,
34,
20
]
}
},
{
"date": "07.03.26",
"home": "Perth",
"away": "Melbourne United",
"score": "95-77",
"home_points": 95,
"away_points": 77,
"total_points": 172,
"home_won": true,
"quarters": {
"home": [
22,
22,
23,
28
],
"away": [
19,
34,
10,
14
]
}
},
{
"date": "05.03.26",
"home": "Melbourne United",
"away": "Tasmania JackJumpers",
"score": "82-68",
"home_points": 82,
"away_points": 68,
"total_points": 150,
"home_won": true,
"quarters": {
"home": [
15,
25,
16,
26
],
"away": [
17,
14,
24,
13
]
}
},
{
"date": "19.02.26",
"home": "Melbourne United",
"away": "South East Melbourne",
"score": "95-91",
"home_points": 95,
"away_points": 91,
"total_points": 186,
"home_won": true,
"quarters": {
"home": [
33,
19,
16,
27
],
"away": [
23,
19,
30,
19
]
}
},
{
"date": "15.02.26",
"home": "Melbourne United",
"away": "Illawarra Hawks",
"score": "91-100",
"home_points": 91,
"away_points": 100,
"total_points": 191,
"home_won": false,
"quarters": {
"home": [
24,
21,
18,
28
],
"away": [
29,
25,
23,
23
]
}
},
{
"date": "12.02.26",
"home": "Cairns Taipans",
"away": "Melbourne United",
"score": "85-89",
"home_points": 85,
"away_points": 89,
"total_points": 174,
"home_won": false,
"quarters": null
},
{
"date": "07.02.26",
"home": "Melbourne United",
"away": "Adelaide",
"score": "76-87",
"home_points": 76,
"away_points": 87,
"total_points": 163,
"home_won": false,
"quarters": null
},
{
"date": "30.01.26",
"home": "New Zealand Breakers",
"away": "Melbourne United",
"score": "97-95",
"home_points": 97,
"away_points": 95,
"total_points": 192,
"home_won": true,
"quarters": null
},
{
"date": "25.01.26",
"home": "Perth",
"away": "Melbourne United",
"score": "73-74",
"home_points": 73,
"away_points": 74,
"total_points": 147,
"home_won": false,
"quarters": null
},
{
"date": "21.01.26",
"home": "Melbourne United",
"away": "Brisbane Bullets",
"score": "98-66",
"home_points": 98,
"away_points": 66,
"total_points": 164,
"home_won": true,
"quarters": null
}
]
},
"team_2": {
"name": "Adelaide",
"last_10_matches": [
{
"date": "05.09.26",
"home": "Adelaide",
"away": "Cairns Taipans",
"score": "112-86",
"home_points": 112,
"away_points": 86,
"total_points": 198,
"home_won": true,
"quarters": {
"home": [
31,
32,
27,
22
],
"away": [
23,
26,
12,
25
]
}
},
{
"date": "05.04.26",
"home": "Sydney",
"away": "Adelaide",
"score": "113-101",
"home_points": 113,
"away_points": 101,
"total_points": 214,
"home_won": true,
"quarters": {
"home": [
29,
27,
13,
26,
18
],
"away": [
31,
24,
21,
19,
6
]
}
},
{
"date": "01.04.26",
"home": "Adelaide",
"away": "Sydney",
"score": "92-91",
"home_points": 92,
"away_points": 91,
"total_points": 183,
"home_won": true,
"quarters": {
"home": [
22,
24,
26,
20
],
"away": [
24,
29,
21,
17
]
}
},
{
"date": "29.03.26",
"home": "Sydney",
"away": "Adelaide",
"score": "106-93",
"home_points": 106,
"away_points": 93,
"total_points": 199,
"home_won": true,
"quarters": {
"home": [
24,
28,
21,
33
],
"away": [
31,
22,
17,
23
]
}
},
{
"date": "27.03.26",
"home": "Adelaide",
"away": "Sydney",
"score": "91-89",
"home_points": 91,
"away_points": 89,
"total_points": 180,
"home_won": true,
"quarters": {
"home": [
25,
28,
15,
23
],
"away": [
30,
22,
25,
12
]
}
},
{
"date": "21.03.26",
"home": "Sydney",
"away": "Adelaide",
"score": "112-68",
"home_points": 112,
"away_points": 68,
"total_points": 180,
"home_won": true,
"quarters": null
},
{
"date": "17.03.26",
"home": "Adelaide",
"away": "South East Melbourne",
"score": "108-96",
"home_points": 108,
"away_points": 96,
"total_points": 204,
"home_won": true,
"quarters": null
},
{
"date": "14.03.26",
"home": "South East Melbourne",
"away": "Adelaide",
"score": "101-92",
"home_points": 101,
"away_points": 92,
"total_points": 193,
"home_won": true,
"quarters": null
},
{
"date": "10.03.26",
"home": "Adelaide",
"away": "South East Melbourne",
"score": "104-97",
"home_points": 104,
"away_points": 97,
"total_points": 201,
"home_won": true,
"quarters": null
},
{
"date": "22.02.26",
"home": "Adelaide",
"away": "New Zealand Breakers",
"score": "107-111",
"home_points": 107,
"away_points": 111,
"total_points": 218,
"home_won": false,
"quarters": null
}
]
},
"head_to_head": {
"last_10_matches": [
{
"date": "07.02.26",
"home": "Melbourne United",
"away": "Adelaide",
"score": "76-87",
"home_points": 76,
"away_points": 87,
"total_points": 163,
"home_won": false,
"quarters": {
"home": [
23,
16,
14,
23
],
"away": [
29,
12,
26,
20
]
}
},
{
"date": "12.12.25",
"home": "Adelaide",
"away": "Melbourne United",
"score": "114-105",
"home_points": 114,
"away_points": 105,
"total_points": 219,
"home_won": true,
"quarters": {
"home": [
27,
32,
22,
14,
19
],
"away": [
22,
26,
19,
28,
10
]
}
},
{
"date": "26.10.25",
"home": "Melbourne United",
"away": "Adelaide",
"score": "81-80",
"home_points": 81,
"away_points": 80,
"total_points": 161,
"home_won": true,
"quarters": {
"home": [
14,
26,
19,
22
],
"away": [
17,
20,
18,
25
]
}
},
{
"date": "04.01.25",
"home": "Adelaide",
"away": "Melbourne United",
"score": "100-81",
"home_points": 100,
"away_points": 81,
"total_points": 181,
"home_won": true,
"quarters": {
"home": [
27,
28,
22,
23
],
"away": [
17,
25,
20,
19
]
}
},
{
"date": "17.11.24",
"home": "Melbourne United",
"away": "Adelaide",
"score": "113-93",
"home_points": 113,
"away_points": 93,
"total_points": 206,
"home_won": true,
"quarters": {
"home": [
29,
30,
26,
28
],
"away": [
22,
24,
27,
20
]
}
},
{
"date": "13.10.24",
"home": "Melbourne United",
"away": "Adelaide",
"score": "106-79",
"home_points": 106,
"away_points": 79,
"total_points": 185,
"home_won": true,
"quarters": null
},
{
"date": "06.01.24",
"home": "Adelaide",
"away": "Melbourne United",
"score": "100-96",
"home_points": 100,
"away_points": 96,
"total_points": 196,
"home_won": true,
"quarters": null
},
{
"date": "16.12.23",
"home": "Melbourne United",
"away": "Adelaide",
"score": "107-96",
"home_points": 107,
"away_points": 96,
"total_points": 203,
"home_won": true,
"quarters": null
},
{
"date": "01.10.23",
"home": "Adelaide",
"away": "Melbourne United",
"score": "74-82",
"home_points": 74,
"away_points": 82,
"total_points": 156,
"home_won": false,
"quarters": null
},
{
"date": "05.02.23",
"home": "Melbourne United",
"away": "Adelaide",
"score": "116-107",
"home_points": 116,
"away_points": 107,
"total_points": 223,
"home_won": true,
"quarters": null
}
]
},
"odds": {
"match_winner": {
"home": {
"value": 1.54,
"indicator": null,
"implied_pct": 60.9,
"edge_vs_model": 7.1
},
"away": {
"value": 2.4,
"indicator": null,
"implied_pct": 39.1,
"edge_vs_model": -7.1
},
"vig_pct": 6.6
}
},
"analysis": {
"expected_points": {
"team_1": 96.9,
"team_2": 91.5,
"total": 188.4
},
"win_probability": {
"team_1": 68,
"team_2": 32
},
"form": {
"team_1": {
"played": 10,
"wins": 6,
"losses": 4,
"win_rate": 0.6,
"avg_pf": 88,
"avg_pa": 86,
"w_avg_pf": 88.2,
"w_avg_pa": 87,
"pace": 174,
"blowout_rate": 0.2
},
"team_2": {
"played": 10,
"wins": 5,
"losses": 5,
"win_rate": 0.5,
"avg_pf": 96.8,
"avg_pa": 100.2,
"w_avg_pf": 96.8,
"w_avg_pa": 99.7,
"pace": 197,
"blowout_rate": 0.2
}
},
"h2h_summary": {
"considered": 10,
"t1_wins": 6,
"t2_wins": 4,
"t1_win_rate": 0.6,
"avg_total": 189.3
},
"confidence": 89,
"winner": {
"team": "Melbourne United",
"probability": 68,
"margin_pts": 5.4,
"opponent": "Adelaide",
"opponent_probability": 32
},
"total_points": {
"projected_total": 188.4,
"team_1_proj": 96.9,
"team_2_proj": 91.5,
"market": null
},
"halftime": {
"team_1": 52.6,
"team_2": 51.1,
"total": 103.7,
"source": "projected_from_form"
},
"quarter_scores": null,
"quarter_prediction": {
"home": [
24.1,
28.5,
18.1,
26.2
],
"away": [
26.5,
24.6,
19.9,
20.4
],
"per_quarter_total": [
50.6,
53.1,
38,
46.6
],
"halftime": {
"home": 52.6,
"away": 51.1,
"total": 103.7
},
"source": "form",
"t1_samples": 5,
"t2_samples": 5,
"t1_fractions": {
"q1": 0.249,
"q2": 0.294,
"q3": 0.187,
"q4": 0.271,
"samples": 5
},
"t2_fractions": {
"q1": 0.29,
"q2": 0.269,
"q3": 0.218,
"q4": 0.223,
"samples": 5
}
},
"predictions": {
"safe": {
"market": "moneyline",
"pick": "Melbourne United to win",
"team": "Melbourne United",
"win_prob": 68,
"confidence": 89,
"reason": "Projected margin ~5 pts; form 60% vs 50% (last 10/10); H2H 60% over last 10"
},
"high_risk": {
"market": "total points (Over)",
"pick": "Over (projected 188)",
"projected": 188.4,
"confidence": 89,
"reason": "Combined pace 185.5 > league baseline."
}
},
"model_version": "v2-2026-05-basketball"
}
}Prediction alerts
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