New Zealand Breakers vs Illawarra Hawks

{
  "expected_points": {
    "team_1": 99.9,
    "team_2": 98,
    "total": 197.9
  },
  "win_probability": {
    "team_1": 57,
    "team_2": 43
  },
  "form": {
    "team_1": {
      "played": 10,
      "wins": 6,
      "losses": 4,
      "win_rate": 0.6,
      "avg_pf": 96.3,
      "avg_pa": 95.9,
      "w_avg_pf": 96.6,
      "w_avg_pa": 95.7,
      "pace": 192.2,
      "blowout_rate": 0.3
    },
    "team_2": {
      "played": 10,
      "wins": 5,
      "losses": 5,
      "win_rate": 0.5,
      "avg_pf": 100.7,
      "avg_pa": 98.3,
      "w_avg_pf": 100.3,
      "w_avg_pa": 98.2,
      "pace": 199,
      "blowout_rate": 0.4
    }
  },
  "h2h_summary": {
    "considered": 10,
    "t1_wins": 5,
    "t2_wins": 5,
    "t1_win_rate": 0.5,
    "avg_total": 185.1
  },
  "confidence": 70,
  "winner": {
    "team": "New Zealand Breakers",
    "probability": 57,
    "margin_pts": 1.9,
    "opponent": "Illawarra Hawks",
    "opponent_probability": 43
  },
  "total_points": {
    "projected_total": 197.9,
    "team_1_proj": 99.9,
    "team_2_proj": 98,
    "market": null
  },
  "halftime": {
    "team_1": 51,
    "team_2": 49.5,
    "total": 100.5,
    "source": "projected_from_form"
  },
  "quarter_scores": null,
  "quarter_prediction": {
    "home": [
      25.1,
      25.9,
      23,
      26
    ],
    "away": [
      23.5,
      26,
      27.4,
      21
    ],
    "per_quarter_total": [
      48.6,
      51.9,
      50.4,
      47
    ],
    "halftime": {
      "home": 51,
      "away": 49.5,
      "total": 100.5
    },
    "source": "form",
    "t1_samples": 5,
    "t2_samples": 5,
    "t1_fractions": {
      "q1": 0.251,
      "q2": 0.259,
      "q3": 0.23,
      "q4": 0.26,
      "samples": 5
    },
    "t2_fractions": {
      "q1": 0.24,
      "q2": 0.265,
      "q3": 0.28,
      "q4": 0.214,
      "samples": 5
    }
  },
  "predictions": {
    "safe": null,
    "high_risk": {
      "market": "moneyline (underdog)",
      "pick": "Illawarra Hawks +ML",
      "team": "Illawarra Hawks",
      "win_prob": 43,
      "confidence": 70,
      "reason": "Illawarra Hawks has live shot (43%) with closer projected margin than market may price."
    }
  },
  "model_version": "v2-2026-05-basketball"
}

{
  "sport": "basketball",
  "league": "NBL",
  "country": "Australia",
  "match": "New Zealand Breakers vs Illawarra Hawks",
  "date": "2026-09-20",
  "time": "08:00",
  "status": "",
  "score": null,
  "quarters": null,
  "match_stats": null,
  "team_1": {
    "name": "New Zealand Breakers",
    "last_10_matches": [
      {
        "date": "08.09.26",
        "home": "South East Melbourne",
        "away": "New Zealand Breakers",
        "score": "100-103",
        "home_points": 100,
        "away_points": 103,
        "total_points": 203,
        "home_won": false,
        "quarters": {
          "home": [
            32,
            27,
            26,
            15
          ],
          "away": [
            25,
            27,
            24,
            27
          ]
        }
      },
      {
        "date": "06.09.26",
        "home": "Tasmania JackJumpers",
        "away": "New Zealand Breakers",
        "score": "86-96",
        "home_points": 86,
        "away_points": 96,
        "total_points": 182,
        "home_won": false,
        "quarters": {
          "home": [
            19,
            30,
            16,
            21
          ],
          "away": [
            22,
            26,
            23,
            25
          ]
        }
      },
      {
        "date": "04.09.26",
        "home": "New Zealand Breakers",
        "away": "Sydney",
        "score": "74-95",
        "home_points": 74,
        "away_points": 95,
        "total_points": 169,
        "home_won": false,
        "quarters": {
          "home": [
            24,
            20,
            10,
            20
          ],
          "away": [
            30,
            21,
            20,
            24
          ]
        }
      },
      {
        "date": "22.02.26",
        "home": "Adelaide",
        "away": "New Zealand Breakers",
        "score": "107-111",
        "home_points": 107,
        "away_points": 111,
        "total_points": 218,
        "home_won": false,
        "quarters": {
          "home": [
            25,
            29,
            28,
            25
          ],
          "away": [
            28,
            19,
            34,
            30
          ]
        }
      },
      {
        "date": "19.02.26",
        "home": "New Zealand Breakers",
        "away": "Cairns Taipans",
        "score": "115-84",
        "home_points": 115,
        "away_points": 84,
        "total_points": 199,
        "home_won": true,
        "quarters": {
          "home": [
            24,
            37,
            27,
            27
          ],
          "away": [
            24,
            20,
            22,
            18
          ]
        }
      },
      {
        "date": "14.02.26",
        "home": "Adelaide",
        "away": "New Zealand Breakers",
        "score": "92-89",
        "home_points": 92,
        "away_points": 89,
        "total_points": 181,
        "home_won": true,
        "quarters": null
      },
      {
        "date": "07.02.26",
        "home": "New Zealand Breakers",
        "away": "Illawarra Hawks",
        "score": "106-95",
        "home_points": 106,
        "away_points": 95,
        "total_points": 201,
        "home_won": true,
        "quarters": null
      },
      {
        "date": "05.02.26",
        "home": "New Zealand Breakers",
        "away": "South East Melbourne",
        "score": "83-114",
        "home_points": 83,
        "away_points": 114,
        "total_points": 197,
        "home_won": false,
        "quarters": null
      },
      {
        "date": "01.02.26",
        "home": "Tasmania JackJumpers",
        "away": "New Zealand Breakers",
        "score": "91-89",
        "home_points": 91,
        "away_points": 89,
        "total_points": 180,
        "home_won": true,
        "quarters": null
      },
      {
        "date": "30.01.26",
        "home": "New Zealand Breakers",
        "away": "Melbourne United",
        "score": "97-95",
        "home_points": 97,
        "away_points": 95,
        "total_points": 192,
        "home_won": true,
        "quarters": null
      }
    ]
  },
  "team_2": {
    "name": "Illawarra Hawks",
    "last_10_matches": [
      {
        "date": "06.09.26",
        "home": "Melbourne United",
        "away": "Illawarra Hawks",
        "score": "103-98",
        "home_points": 103,
        "away_points": 98,
        "total_points": 201,
        "home_won": true,
        "quarters": {
          "home": [
            21,
            30,
            25,
            27
          ],
          "away": [
            19,
            25,
            34,
            20
          ]
        }
      },
      {
        "date": "18.02.26",
        "home": "Tasmania JackJumpers",
        "away": "Illawarra Hawks",
        "score": "70-103",
        "home_points": 70,
        "away_points": 103,
        "total_points": 173,
        "home_won": false,
        "quarters": {
          "home": [
            18,
            16,
            17,
            19
          ],
          "away": [
            26,
            28,
            27,
            22
          ]
        }
      },
      {
        "date": "15.02.26",
        "home": "Melbourne United",
        "away": "Illawarra Hawks",
        "score": "91-100",
        "home_points": 91,
        "away_points": 100,
        "total_points": 191,
        "home_won": false,
        "quarters": {
          "home": [
            24,
            21,
            18,
            28
          ],
          "away": [
            29,
            25,
            23,
            23
          ]
        }
      },
      {
        "date": "13.02.26",
        "home": "Illawarra Hawks",
        "away": "Sydney",
        "score": "94-120",
        "home_points": 94,
        "away_points": 120,
        "total_points": 214,
        "home_won": false,
        "quarters": {
          "home": [
            19,
            27,
            23,
            25
          ],
          "away": [
            34,
            24,
            26,
            36
          ]
        }
      },
      {
        "date": "07.02.26",
        "home": "New Zealand Breakers",
        "away": "Illawarra Hawks",
        "score": "106-95",
        "home_points": 106,
        "away_points": 95,
        "total_points": 201,
        "home_won": true,
        "quarters": {
          "home": [
            33,
            28,
            23,
            22
          ],
          "away": [
            25,
            25,
            30,
            15
          ]
        }
      },
      {
        "date": "05.02.26",
        "home": "Illawarra Hawks",
        "away": "Adelaide",
        "score": "100-99",
        "home_points": 100,
        "away_points": 99,
        "total_points": 199,
        "home_won": true,
        "quarters": null
      },
      {
        "date": "31.01.26",
        "home": "Illawarra Hawks",
        "away": "Perth",
        "score": "99-106",
        "home_points": 99,
        "away_points": 106,
        "total_points": 205,
        "home_won": false,
        "quarters": null
      },
      {
        "date": "29.01.26",
        "home": "Sydney",
        "away": "Illawarra Hawks",
        "score": "122-104",
        "home_points": 122,
        "away_points": 104,
        "total_points": 226,
        "home_won": true,
        "quarters": null
      },
      {
        "date": "26.01.26",
        "home": "Brisbane Bullets",
        "away": "Illawarra Hawks",
        "score": "75-113",
        "home_points": 75,
        "away_points": 113,
        "total_points": 188,
        "home_won": false,
        "quarters": null
      },
      {
        "date": "24.01.26",
        "home": "Tasmania JackJumpers",
        "away": "Illawarra Hawks",
        "score": "91-101",
        "home_points": 91,
        "away_points": 101,
        "total_points": 192,
        "home_won": false,
        "quarters": null
      }
    ]
  },
  "head_to_head": {
    "last_10_matches": [
      {
        "date": "07.02.26",
        "home": "New Zealand Breakers",
        "away": "Illawarra Hawks",
        "score": "106-95",
        "home_points": 106,
        "away_points": 95,
        "total_points": 201,
        "home_won": true,
        "quarters": {
          "home": [
            33,
            28,
            23,
            22
          ],
          "away": [
            25,
            25,
            30,
            15
          ]
        }
      },
      {
        "date": "11.01.26",
        "home": "Illawarra Hawks",
        "away": "New Zealand Breakers",
        "score": "96-101",
        "home_points": 96,
        "away_points": 101,
        "total_points": 197,
        "home_won": false,
        "quarters": {
          "home": [
            25,
            18,
            23,
            30
          ],
          "away": [
            28,
            21,
            22,
            30
          ]
        }
      },
      {
        "date": "31.10.25",
        "home": "Illawarra Hawks",
        "away": "New Zealand Breakers",
        "score": "60-102",
        "home_points": 60,
        "away_points": 102,
        "total_points": 162,
        "home_won": false,
        "quarters": {
          "home": [
            18,
            16,
            10,
            16
          ],
          "away": [
            31,
            21,
            27,
            23
          ]
        }
      },
      {
        "date": "08.10.25",
        "home": "New Zealand Breakers",
        "away": "Illawarra Hawks",
        "score": "117-88",
        "home_points": 117,
        "away_points": 88,
        "total_points": 205,
        "home_won": true,
        "quarters": {
          "home": [
            30,
            30,
            27,
            30
          ],
          "away": [
            24,
            25,
            23,
            16
          ]
        }
      },
      {
        "date": "05.02.25",
        "home": "New Zealand Breakers",
        "away": "Illawarra Hawks",
        "score": "82-96",
        "home_points": 82,
        "away_points": 96,
        "total_points": 178,
        "home_won": false,
        "quarters": {
          "home": [
            17,
            23,
            19,
            23
          ],
          "away": [
            27,
            22,
            33,
            14
          ]
        }
      },
      {
        "date": "11.01.25",
        "home": "Illawarra Hawks",
        "away": "New Zealand Breakers",
        "score": "108-100",
        "home_points": 108,
        "away_points": 100,
        "total_points": 208,
        "home_won": true,
        "quarters": null
      },
      {
        "date": "28.11.24",
        "home": "Illawarra Hawks",
        "away": "New Zealand Breakers",
        "score": "109-71",
        "home_points": 109,
        "away_points": 71,
        "total_points": 180,
        "home_won": true,
        "quarters": null
      },
      {
        "date": "04.03.24",
        "home": "Illawarra Hawks",
        "away": "New Zealand Breakers",
        "score": "88-85",
        "home_points": 88,
        "away_points": 85,
        "total_points": 173,
        "home_won": true,
        "quarters": null
      },
      {
        "date": "09.02.24",
        "home": "New Zealand Breakers",
        "away": "Illawarra Hawks",
        "score": "88-85",
        "home_points": 88,
        "away_points": 85,
        "total_points": 173,
        "home_won": true,
        "quarters": null
      },
      {
        "date": "28.01.24",
        "home": "Illawarra Hawks",
        "away": "New Zealand Breakers",
        "score": "89-85",
        "home_points": 89,
        "away_points": 85,
        "total_points": 174,
        "home_won": true,
        "quarters": null
      }
    ]
  },
  "odds": {
    "match_winner": {
      "home": {
        "value": 1.94,
        "indicator": "up",
        "implied_pct": 48.7,
        "edge_vs_model": 8.3
      },
      "away": {
        "value": 1.84,
        "indicator": "down",
        "implied_pct": 51.3,
        "edge_vs_model": -8.3
      },
      "vig_pct": 5.89
    }
  },
  "analysis": {
    "expected_points": {
      "team_1": 99.9,
      "team_2": 98,
      "total": 197.9
    },
    "win_probability": {
      "team_1": 57,
      "team_2": 43
    },
    "form": {
      "team_1": {
        "played": 10,
        "wins": 6,
        "losses": 4,
        "win_rate": 0.6,
        "avg_pf": 96.3,
        "avg_pa": 95.9,
        "w_avg_pf": 96.6,
        "w_avg_pa": 95.7,
        "pace": 192.2,
        "blowout_rate": 0.3
      },
      "team_2": {
        "played": 10,
        "wins": 5,
        "losses": 5,
        "win_rate": 0.5,
        "avg_pf": 100.7,
        "avg_pa": 98.3,
        "w_avg_pf": 100.3,
        "w_avg_pa": 98.2,
        "pace": 199,
        "blowout_rate": 0.4
      }
    },
    "h2h_summary": {
      "considered": 10,
      "t1_wins": 5,
      "t2_wins": 5,
      "t1_win_rate": 0.5,
      "avg_total": 185.1
    },
    "confidence": 70,
    "winner": {
      "team": "New Zealand Breakers",
      "probability": 57,
      "margin_pts": 1.9,
      "opponent": "Illawarra Hawks",
      "opponent_probability": 43
    },
    "total_points": {
      "projected_total": 197.9,
      "team_1_proj": 99.9,
      "team_2_proj": 98,
      "market": null
    },
    "halftime": {
      "team_1": 51,
      "team_2": 49.5,
      "total": 100.5,
      "source": "projected_from_form"
    },
    "quarter_scores": null,
    "quarter_prediction": {
      "home": [
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        25.9,
        23,
        26
      ],
      "away": [
        23.5,
        26,
        27.4,
        21
      ],
      "per_quarter_total": [
        48.6,
        51.9,
        50.4,
        47
      ],
      "halftime": {
        "home": 51,
        "away": 49.5,
        "total": 100.5
      },
      "source": "form",
      "t1_samples": 5,
      "t2_samples": 5,
      "t1_fractions": {
        "q1": 0.251,
        "q2": 0.259,
        "q3": 0.23,
        "q4": 0.26,
        "samples": 5
      },
      "t2_fractions": {
        "q1": 0.24,
        "q2": 0.265,
        "q3": 0.28,
        "q4": 0.214,
        "samples": 5
      }
    },
    "predictions": {
      "safe": null,
      "high_risk": {
        "market": "moneyline (underdog)",
        "pick": "Illawarra Hawks +ML",
        "team": "Illawarra Hawks",
        "win_prob": 43,
        "confidence": 70,
        "reason": "Illawarra Hawks has live shot (43%) with closer projected margin than market may price."
      }
    },
    "model_version": "v2-2026-05-basketball"
  }
}